The year 2013 is likely to bring more of what 2012 brought - a mix of strong bull and bear months in most stock indexes and commodities alike. Seeking out the top investment trends for 2013 will require some patience, or looking at some sectors … or countries … you may not have considered before. Technology still provides some opportunities, but this is where patience will be key. Emerging markets can be easily traded now through exchange traded funds (ETFs), providing a host of opportunities for those looking for a little foreign diversification - and some of these markets are still showing strength. Finally, gold was a hot topic in 2011, but with a more lateral movement in 2012 it received less focus; that could all change in 2013. By breaking down the charts, we look at key investments to watch for bullish activity in 2013.
Technology led the market higher in 2012, with the Powershare QQQ (Nasdaq:QQQ), representing the Nasdaq 100 index, out pacing other major indexes, such as the S&P 500 SPDRS (ARCA:SPY). This strength makes the sector one of the ideal ones to watch during bullish months in 2013.
Much of the hype in technology was due to Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL), which was up more than 70% for 2012 in September, but fell hard off those highs in October and by November was only up about 30% - still a great year. The long-term chart of Apple provides clues as to what 2013 has in store for the stock, and how to trade it.
Apple is currently in a pullback mode. Entry near the long-term trendline - requiring some patience - is a great trade candidate for 2013. The trendline currently intersects near $410. Therefore, through 2013 the $400 to $500 price range is the entry point based on the historic trendline.
Apple is still the leader in the technology space, and watching it provides insight into technology as a whole. If Apple's stock is strong in 2013, expect the entire technology sector to be strong. On the other hand, if Apple is weak it will likely pull the entire sector down .
Smartphones and tablet devices are everywhere, and it is questionable how much more market penetration can occur. Therefore, something new in the technology space is likely to be coming down the pipe in the next year or two - it may come from Apple, or it may come from somewhere else.
Emerging markets are still providing a lot of opportunity. The growth potential in these markets is more significant than in the more developed and mature United States, United Kingdom and Canadian markets. While there are always blossoming stocks and money to be made in mature markets, emerging markets have more potential and have for the most part been outperforming the mature markets over the last several years. For example, Mexico, which is highlighted below, has performed more than nine times better than the S&P 500 over the last 10 years. Emerging markets are a mixed bag, however, as some have been performing exceptionally well over the last several years - a trend which quite possibly could continue into 2013 - while others have fallen and present an opportunity to buy at a "value" level.
Mexico
The Mexican market is accessible through the iShares MCSI Mexico (ARCA:EWW) ETF, and that ETF is up 481% over the last 10 years, as of Nov. 16, 2012. Compare that to the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (ARCA:SPY) which is up 53% over the same period. A new high at $69.01 was created in 2012, indicating this long-term uptrend is still intact.
Look for that uptrend to continue into 2013. However, be aware of the 2011 to 2012 trendline. If the ETF drops below $60 it is an early warning that the ETF could fall even further into the $46 support area or below.
Malaysia
The Malaysian market is accessible through the iShares MCSI Malaysia (ARCA:EWM) ETF. Strength over the last 10 years - and up 204% as of Nov. 16, 2012 - shows this ETF is still in an uptrend which could continue into 2013. The Malaysian market is still holding up well, even as the U.S. indexes have fallen in late 2012.
If the Malaysian ETF rallies back above $15.21, the 2012 high, it is likely the 2011 high at $15.48 will also be reached and the uptrend is continuing. On the other hand, if those highs aren't reached, the market could be heading for a long-term downtrend if it moves below $13.47 - the June 2012 low.
South AfricaThe South African market is accessible through the iShares MCSI South Africa (ARCA:EZA) ETF; it is up 230.86% (as of Nov. 16, 2012) since inception in February 2003. The long-term trend is up, but the ETF currently trades within a triangle pattern. The triangle is typically a continuation pattern, indicating the long-term uptrend will resume, quite possibly in 2013.
A rally above $69 signals a resumption of the uptrend, targeting $88. On the other hand a decline below $60 indicates a downside move is likely coming, targeting $42.50.
Argentina
The Argentine market is accessible through the Global X Funds Argentina 20 (Nasdaq:ARGT). Through 2011 and 2012 the Argentine market has been in a downtrend, but over the last 10 years the overall trend is up. The recent down move is creating a possible entry point during 2013 for the next wave higher in the Argentine market. For a buy signal to occur, however, the index will need to rally above 2,600 - $9.25 on the ETF.
The ETF has only been around since February 2011 and has low volume - usually less than 10,000 shares a day.
The breakout of a triangle pattern in 2012 indicates a bullish year for gold in 2013. Triangles are traditionally continuation patterns, and the upside breakout indicates it is quite likely there is another higher wave already underway in gold. Based on the dimensions of the triangle, the long-term target is $2,080 for gold futures. Most of this advance is likely to occur in 2013.
In the meantime, $1,800 has posed a significant resistance. The price will need to get through that area before the target can be reached. An inability to clear resistance and a drop below $1,523 indicates the price is likely to slide lower.
Gold is also tradable through the SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The target for the ETF based on the triangle is $195. A drop below $148.25 is bearish and indicates a potential longer term decline into the $113 region. Resistance is between $175.46 and $174.
When looking to the future, there is always uncertainty and there are no sure bets. Each opportunity presented, and this is not an exhaustive list, is unique and presents its own rewards and risks. Malaysia and Mexico are still strong and that could continue, while the technology sector in the U.S. - including Apple - requires a bit more of a pullback before it will likely present its best buying opportunity. South Africa and Argentina are in "wait-and-see" mode; if an upside breakout occurs it will likely trigger a longer term rise. Gold recently broke higher out of a triangle pattern and is likely starting its next advance. In each case, however, there are levels to watch which signal the price may fall instead of rise. Always know and manage your risk, and make 2013 a prosperous year.
by Cory Mitchell
Cory Mitchell is a proprietary trader and Chartered Market Technician specializing in short to medium-term technical strategies. He is the founder of VantagePointTrading.com, a website dedicated to trader education and market analysis.
Graduating with a business degree, Mitchell has been trading multiple markets and educating traders since 2005. He has been widely published and is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts and the Market Technicians Association. His free weekend newsletter includes trading strategies, tutorials, as well as stock and forex market analysis.
Source :www.investopedia.com
Disclaimer…The subject matters expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and personal opinions of the writer. it is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
Top Investment Trends For 2013: Technology
Technology led the market higher in 2012, with the Powershare QQQ (Nasdaq:QQQ), representing the Nasdaq 100 index, out pacing other major indexes, such as the S&P 500 SPDRS (ARCA:SPY). This strength makes the sector one of the ideal ones to watch during bullish months in 2013.
Much of the hype in technology was due to Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL), which was up more than 70% for 2012 in September, but fell hard off those highs in October and by November was only up about 30% - still a great year. The long-term chart of Apple provides clues as to what 2013 has in store for the stock, and how to trade it.
 |
| Figure 1: Apple 10-year monthly. |
| Image Courtesy: thinkorswim |
Apple is currently in a pullback mode. Entry near the long-term trendline - requiring some patience - is a great trade candidate for 2013. The trendline currently intersects near $410. Therefore, through 2013 the $400 to $500 price range is the entry point based on the historic trendline.
Apple is still the leader in the technology space, and watching it provides insight into technology as a whole. If Apple's stock is strong in 2013, expect the entire technology sector to be strong. On the other hand, if Apple is weak it will likely pull the entire sector down .
Smartphones and tablet devices are everywhere, and it is questionable how much more market penetration can occur. Therefore, something new in the technology space is likely to be coming down the pipe in the next year or two - it may come from Apple, or it may come from somewhere else.
Top Investment Trends For 2013: Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are still providing a lot of opportunity. The growth potential in these markets is more significant than in the more developed and mature United States, United Kingdom and Canadian markets. While there are always blossoming stocks and money to be made in mature markets, emerging markets have more potential and have for the most part been outperforming the mature markets over the last several years. For example, Mexico, which is highlighted below, has performed more than nine times better than the S&P 500 over the last 10 years. Emerging markets are a mixed bag, however, as some have been performing exceptionally well over the last several years - a trend which quite possibly could continue into 2013 - while others have fallen and present an opportunity to buy at a "value" level.
Mexico
The Mexican market is accessible through the iShares MCSI Mexico (ARCA:EWW) ETF, and that ETF is up 481% over the last 10 years, as of Nov. 16, 2012. Compare that to the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (ARCA:SPY) which is up 53% over the same period. A new high at $69.01 was created in 2012, indicating this long-term uptrend is still intact.
 |
| Figure 2: Mexican ETF 10-year monthly. |
| Image Courtesy: thinkorswim |
Look for that uptrend to continue into 2013. However, be aware of the 2011 to 2012 trendline. If the ETF drops below $60 it is an early warning that the ETF could fall even further into the $46 support area or below.
Malaysia
The Malaysian market is accessible through the iShares MCSI Malaysia (ARCA:EWM) ETF. Strength over the last 10 years - and up 204% as of Nov. 16, 2012 - shows this ETF is still in an uptrend which could continue into 2013. The Malaysian market is still holding up well, even as the U.S. indexes have fallen in late 2012.
 |
| Figure 3: Malaysian ETF 10-year monthly. |
| Image Courtesy: thinkorswim |
If the Malaysian ETF rallies back above $15.21, the 2012 high, it is likely the 2011 high at $15.48 will also be reached and the uptrend is continuing. On the other hand, if those highs aren't reached, the market could be heading for a long-term downtrend if it moves below $13.47 - the June 2012 low.
South AfricaThe South African market is accessible through the iShares MCSI South Africa (ARCA:EZA) ETF; it is up 230.86% (as of Nov. 16, 2012) since inception in February 2003. The long-term trend is up, but the ETF currently trades within a triangle pattern. The triangle is typically a continuation pattern, indicating the long-term uptrend will resume, quite possibly in 2013.
 |
| Figure 4: The South African ETF 10-year monthly. |
| Image Courtesy:thinkorswim |
A rally above $69 signals a resumption of the uptrend, targeting $88. On the other hand a decline below $60 indicates a downside move is likely coming, targeting $42.50.
Argentina
The Argentine market is accessible through the Global X Funds Argentina 20 (Nasdaq:ARGT). Through 2011 and 2012 the Argentine market has been in a downtrend, but over the last 10 years the overall trend is up. The recent down move is creating a possible entry point during 2013 for the next wave higher in the Argentine market. For a buy signal to occur, however, the index will need to rally above 2,600 - $9.25 on the ETF.
 |
| Figure 5: Argentine Index January 1999 to November 2012. |
| Image Courtesy: thinkorswim |
The ETF has only been around since February 2011 and has low volume - usually less than 10,000 shares a day.
Top Investment Trends For 2013: Gold
The breakout of a triangle pattern in 2012 indicates a bullish year for gold in 2013. Triangles are traditionally continuation patterns, and the upside breakout indicates it is quite likely there is another higher wave already underway in gold. Based on the dimensions of the triangle, the long-term target is $2,080 for gold futures. Most of this advance is likely to occur in 2013.
 |
| Figure 6: December gold futures chart. |
| Image Courtesy:thinkorswim |
In the meantime, $1,800 has posed a significant resistance. The price will need to get through that area before the target can be reached. An inability to clear resistance and a drop below $1,523 indicates the price is likely to slide lower.
Gold is also tradable through the SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The target for the ETF based on the triangle is $195. A drop below $148.25 is bearish and indicates a potential longer term decline into the $113 region. Resistance is between $175.46 and $174.
Top Investment Trends For 2013: Conclusion
When looking to the future, there is always uncertainty and there are no sure bets. Each opportunity presented, and this is not an exhaustive list, is unique and presents its own rewards and risks. Malaysia and Mexico are still strong and that could continue, while the technology sector in the U.S. - including Apple - requires a bit more of a pullback before it will likely present its best buying opportunity. South Africa and Argentina are in "wait-and-see" mode; if an upside breakout occurs it will likely trigger a longer term rise. Gold recently broke higher out of a triangle pattern and is likely starting its next advance. In each case, however, there are levels to watch which signal the price may fall instead of rise. Always know and manage your risk, and make 2013 a prosperous year.
by Cory Mitchell
Cory Mitchell is a proprietary trader and Chartered Market Technician specializing in short to medium-term technical strategies. He is the founder of VantagePointTrading.com, a website dedicated to trader education and market analysis.
Graduating with a business degree, Mitchell has been trading multiple markets and educating traders since 2005. He has been widely published and is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts and the Market Technicians Association. His free weekend newsletter includes trading strategies, tutorials, as well as stock and forex market analysis.
Source :www.investopedia.com
Disclaimer…The subject matters expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and personal opinions of the writer. it is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
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